There are no division winners left in the National League half of the 2022 playoffs. Instead, a 5 vs. 6 matchup sets up the league championship series, starting tonight. Games will be shown on either Fox or FS1 (Spectrum Cable channel 400 for viewers in the upstate NY area).
The case for San Diego:
Three years ago, the Washington Nationals, having allowed All-Star Bryce Harper to walk (Philadelphia), showed they could win without him, and won their first title. Earlier this season, the Padres' biggest star, 2nd generation slugger Fernando Tatis, Jr., was popped for PED's while on the injured list, and even if he had been healthy, wouldn't have been eligible for this year's playoffs. Some believe Tatis may have written his ticket out of town.
San Diego still has Manny Machado. A short-tempered slugger (like Harper) acquired from Baltimore a few years back, Machado has been the offensive leader the Padres have needed, leading a non-descript group into their first LCS since 1998. You might remember that year. San Diego advanced to the World Series that year, and lost to the Yankees.
We've seen what Padre pitching can do in upsetting the Mets and Dodgers. Blake Snell has looked like his old self in his 2nd season since coming over from Tampa Bay. Yu Darvish & Joe Musgrove have been nearly unhittable.
The case for Philadelphia:
No one expected the "Fightin' Phils" to get this far, especially considering the teams ahead of them in the NL East, Atlanta & the Mets, combined to win 26 games in the regular season against Philadelphia. However, here they are, a scrappy bunch looking for their first title since 2008. They actually let ex-Met Noah Syndergaard start game 3 in what amounted to a bullpen game on Saturday after acquiring him from the Angels at the deadline. Slotted behind reunited teammate Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the Phillies rotation, "Thor" gives Rob Thomson a formidable third starter, but Thomson would also be wise to get Zach Eflin out of the bullpen and let him start, too.
The critics will complain if Philly wins it all, and whine about buying a title in acquiring Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to give Harper some protection in the lineup. Still, all three sluggers strike out too much, and there will be a pool on if/when Harper throws a tantrum after a strikeout in a critical situation.
The x-factor: Bob Melvin does have some post-season experience as a manager dating back to his run in Oakland. Rob Thomson does not, and being Joe Girardi's sidekick doesn't count.
The pick: San Diego in 6.
Of course, I could be wrong.
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