Saturday, January 20, 2018

NFL Conference championship preview

Back in the day, it was hip to hate teams like the Yankees, because they were so dominant for so long. However, the Bronx Bombers have had their lean periods, too, just like every other team.

When the Boston Celtics ruled the NBA in the 80's, their detractors claimed the team, owned at the time by former coach Red Auerbach, was being given preferential treatment by the league's officials. As the NBA has transitioned into a star-driven league for marketing purposes, the Celtics, as presently constituted, are just another team, despite their rich history. The same can be said for their ancient rivals, the Los Angeles Lakers, who are making headlines now because of a rookie whose father is addicted to attention in order to make up for his own shortcomings as a pro years earlier.

Today, the New England Patriots are nearly two decades deep into their current run as the NFL's Evil Empire. Coach Bill Belichick went from being "nattily dressed", as Chris Berman often described him on ESPN, to trying to be hip by wearing a hoodie on the sidelines, and treating his press conferences like he was in a hurry for a CIA meeting. The team's preference for secrecy is counter-balanced by the allegations of wrong-doing raised over the last decade, and despite commissioner Roger (Ramjet) Goodell's seeming dislike of the team, they somehow manage to escape punishment with but slaps on the wrist. Owner Robert Kraft may be slipping some free cheese and salad dressing to his fellow committee members on the side to ensure his teflon team carries on unabated.

Diva QB Tom Brady has caught the fever of keeping things close to the vest. He refused to discuss a hand injury sustained earlier in the week during a Friday press conference, and the team has him listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC title game vs. upstart Jacksonville. The AFC South champs beat New England in August in what was thought to be a meaningless preseason game, but maybe, just maybe, Belichick and his staff might be looking back at game films to see where they went wrong that night.

Assuredly, this is not the game CBS and the league wanted, after Jacksonville took down Pittsburgh last weekend in a thriller. Most folks assume, despite the fact that the spread has shrunken to the Pats being a 7 1/2 point favorite this morning, that New England will roll on. If he understands his history like people think he does, Belichick would be wise to hang a certain quote from George Santayana on the bulletin board prior to kickoff.

To be honest, I don't see New England covering. I see them surviving, if that. Brady may be trying to be a hero, but covering up an injury is the last thing you want to do this time of year. Jacksonville's QB, Blake Bortles (& Jaymes) isn't on the same level as Brady, but, then, the Jaguars do rely more on the run game than the Patriots do, thanks to rookie running back Leonard Fournette (LSU). The Patriot defense will key on him first, forcing Bortles to chuck it in the air more than he really needs to. Brady pads his stats by throwing more than he needs to in order to feed his ego, but would be well served to give the ball more to Albany native Dion (& The Belmonts) Lewis and James White, one of the heroes of last year's Super Bowl.

And that suggests another quote should be posted, this one directed at Brady. Consider, then, the words posted prior to the recording of "We Are The World", 33 years ago:

"Check your ego at the door."

In order for Brady and the Patriots to win back the respect of the rest of the country, Brady needs to stop trying to be a one-man team. Even Superman needs help once in a while.

The pick: Patriots, 38-35.
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Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles have played in six Super Bowls between them, losing them all. Between them, the Eagles took a crack at the Pats more than a decade ago, when Donovan McNabb was still their QB. Today, Nick Foles, on his 2nd tour of duty in Philly, leads the Eagles into the NFC title game, and for the 2nd straight week, they're a home underdog. Talk about disrespect. What this says is that the oddsmakers, being just pound foolish and not even penny wise at all, don't believe Foles can get the Eagles to the promised land. They didn't get the message last week, after the Eagles clipped Atlanta, 15-10. Minnesota ended New Orleans' run in more convincing fashion, but the two games combined, coupled with the Jacksonville-Pittsburgh game, did more for the league in terms of drama and ratings than a certain defending champion did in showing no respect to their opponent.

Let's not forget that Vikings QB Case Keenum is also a backup, and coach Mike Zimmer chose not to put incumbent QB Teddy Bridgewater back on the field when he was activated from IR late in the season. Zimmer stuck with the hot hand, and it's paid dividends. The Vikings have also overcome adversity, losing rookie running back Dalvin Cook (Florida State) to injury early in the season.

The weather will also be a factor, as it will in Foxborough. By game time, the temperatures should be around the 20's, normal for this time of year, and not the deep freeze it was when Minnesota played Seattle in the playoffs two years ago, prompting a reference to the movie, "Ice Station Zebra", from one of the NBC announcers. For Philadelphia's LeGarrette Blount, it's a chance to get back to the big dance, too, to get back at the Patriots for cutting him loose after last season. Unfortunately, I don't see it.

The pick: Vikings reach the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 4 decades, 41-35.

Of course, I could be wrong.

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