Monday, August 27, 2012

NFL Forecast 2012

As I write this, we are 9 days away from the start of the 2012 season. Last year's pre-season was shortened because the players were locked out. This year, the NFL has locked out the referees, and of course that has led to some blown calls by their subs, and some even more glaring errors. If this remains par for the course when it all starts on September 5, there will be chaos.

Let us consider the 8 divisions:

AFC:

East: 

All roads to the Super Bowl still run through New England until further notice. In this writer's opinion, the Patriots shouldn't have been in the Super Bowl in February, and thus karmic justice was served when Bill Belichick's crew lost----again----to the Giants. For some reason, the schedule makers, perhaps on the take, have the defending champs returning to Foxborough, where the Pats lost to the Giants last year, too, for a late-season game. Apparently, Belichick doesn't want to make more than one trip to the Meadowlands per year. Whatever.

Word on the street is that Buffalo is cutting loose QB Vince Young, who infamously anointed his last team, the Eagles, as a "Dream Team" last year, and we know how that turned out. Instead, the Bills are working on a deal to bring Tavaris Jackson over from the Seahawks to back up Ryan Fitzpatrick. All that tells me is that the Bills still haven't figured out how to get out of the cellar.....! Miami took a chance on Chad Johnson, then cut him loose nearly 2 weeks ago when he was busted on a domestic assault charge. Well, another "diva", Terrell Owens is available, now that the Seahawks have dropped him like a bad habit, but I don't see him faring any better than Johnson did. In New York, the Jets, amazingly, have forgotten how to score touchdowns, having gone 0-3 in August because of this malaise, but all the tabloid media wants to play up is the QB controversy, such as it is, between Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. Please, give me a break.

Projected order of finish:

1. New England
2. Jets
3. Miami
3 (tie). Buffalo

North:

Pittsburgh fans got their last look at WR Hines Ward in a cameo role in "The Dark Knight Rises". They're probably wishing he'd stick around at least another year, what with his heir apparent, Mike Wallace, having held out for most of the summer. The only real controversy surrounding the Steelers might be whether or not Troy Polamalu has to do any more shampoo commercials with Minnesota Twins star Joe Mauer. Last year's bits weren't exactly comedy gold. However, it's been proven that the Steelers aren't even the top team in the division any more, and neither, really, are the Bengals. Cincinnati hasn't won back-to-back division titles in I don't know when. And, then, there's Baltimore, hungry to get back to the Super Bowl after getting screwed by the Patriots in January. Maybe if Joe Flacco can land an endorsement deal or three, something Tom Brady doesn't have right now, by the way, maybe the power brokers will finally see things through for the Ravens. Cleveland? They gave up on 2010 1st rounder Colt McCoy already, drafting Brandon Weeden to be their new QB. Oh, stop the pain. At this rate, WWE Intercontinental champ Michael "The Miz" Mizanin, a native of suburban Palma and a former high school gridiron star, might get a call. Not.

Projected order of finish:

1. Pittsburgh
2. Baltimore
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland

South:

The Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis officially ended when he went on IR last year. Now, Manning and his commercial endorsements have gone west, and 1st round pick Andrew Luck takes over at QB. He's as advertised, despite having lost to the Steelers on national television 8 days ago. However, Houston, marking the 10th anniversary of the Texans this year, is the defending division champ, and has virtually everyone back from last year, including QB Matt Schaub, who was injured for most of 2011. Jacksonville will have Blaine Gabbert starting at QB on opening day, and pried CB Aaron Ross away from the Giants to help the defense, despite his injury history. However, Maurice Jones-Drew is holding out, and the Jaguars are not willing to trade him. I don't blame them there. Tennessee enters year 2 of the Matt Hasselbeck-Jake Locker era, and maybe gets back to the postseason. Stress maybe.

Projected order of finish:

1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Indianapolis
4. Jacksonville

West:

Denver started the vicious circle of QB transfers by cutting Tim Tebow after signing Peyton Manning. As per usual, you can't escape Manning on your TV, as he's shilling for Buick, DirecTV (w/brother Eli & Deion Sanders), and Reebok. Pray he still isn't doing ads for MasterCard, because that was getting tiresome 2 years ago. The Broncos also let Kyle Orton walk (the Cowboys took a flier on him), and so Manning has to mentor someone after all. At this rate, y'think maybe Tebow should've stayed? Oakland let Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens walk, weakening their WR corps. Schilens is with the Jets, and Murphy signed with the Panthers. There's nothing to get excited about. As for Kansas City & San Diego, it's business as usual. They'll fight for a playoff spot, but they'll also be chasing Peyton.........

Projected order of finish:

1. Denver
2. San Diego
2 (tie). Kansas City
4. Oakland

NFC:

East:

This is not how you begin defending a Super Bowl title. The New York Giants lost Aaron Ross (Jacksonville), Brandon Jacobs, Mario Manningham (both in San Francisco), and Jake Ballard (the Patriots gave him a look and passed) to free agency, but picked up Martellus Bennett from the Cowboys to replace Ballard. Eli Manning looks silly with those wings on his back in those DirecTV ads with Deion and Peyton, and deserves better. Unfortunately, they close the pre-season against the hated Patriots, but then they didn't have a winning pre-season last year, either....! In Dallas, Dez Bryant must feel like he's back in college, as the word is the Cowboys placed him on double secret probation. Ask anyone who's seen "Animal House" what that means. Tony Romo has to prove he actually can win when it counts, especially in December, but what they really should do is give Jerry Jones, the NFL's answer to the late George Steinbrenner in terms of hot air, a muzzle so he doesn't write checks with his mouth that his team won't be able to cash. Philadelphia did the smart thing by jettisoning Vince Young after last season's debacle. Unfortunately, there is too much talent in the division to allow the Eagles to take the title. All the rage in Washington, of course, is Heisman winner Robert Griffin III, who is already an inescapable presence in terms of endorsements. Gatorade & Subway signed him up in mere heartbeats, as if they needed more people shilling their products. Griffin, though, may be the last piece of the Redskins' title puzzle. 

Projected order of finish:

1. Giants
2. Washington
2 (tie). Dallas
4. Philadelphia

North:

Chicago upgraded their receiving corps by drafting Alshon Jeffery from South Carolina. Johnny Knox starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, so Jeffery will be under heavy pressure to produce immediately. Green Bay got some bad press when the New York tabloids bleated how Clay Matthews Jr. was spewing sour grapes about a playoff loss to the Giants. There is a rematch, you know, so a receipt is due. Detroit, despite a solid 2011 season, has to fight for 2nd place. Minnesota just needs to avoid the cellar.

Projected order of finish:

1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota.

South:

New Orleans has to rely on QB Drew Brees and the offense more than usual, since the defense was ravaged by suspensions caused by former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' bounties. They're better off if the only bounties in the locker room are a certain brand of paper towels. Carolina stands to benefit the most, as 2nd year QB Cam Newton came of age late last season. However, they need to get past Atlanta & Tampa Bay to earn a playoff spot. The Buccaneers had a down year in 2011, but it has to be just an aberration. As for Matt Ryan and the Falcons, they just have to win consistently on the road.

Projected order of finish:

1. Atlanta

2. New Orleans
3. Carolina
3 (tie). Tampa Bay

West:

San Francisco returned to the top of the division last year under Jim Harbaugh, and all they did in the offseason was add to their offense, prying Mario Manningham & Brandon Jacobs from the Giants. Like, doesn't QB Alex Smith have enough weapons already? Seattle named rookie QB Russell Wilson, out of Wisconsin, as their opening day starter over ex-Packer backup Matt Flynn. Tavaris Jackson wasn't even considered. The Seahawks ditched the reclamation project of Terrell Owens, who will land somewhere, I'm sure, as long as the price is right. In St. Louis, Sam Bradford and the Rams are on the doorstep. They just need a key. Arizona? Uh, not this year.

Projected order of finish:

1. San Francisco
2. St. Louis
3. Seattle
4. Arizona

Wild cards: 

AFC: Baltimore, San Diego
NFC: New Orleans, Washington

We'll see where the chips fall in January.

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